Amid the ongoing conflict involving Israel, the United States, and Iran, along with increasing economic and geopolitical pressure from the United States, concerns are emerging regarding India’s capacity to preserve its strategic autonomy, despite expanding defence and trade partnerships with European countries.
The Iran Conflict and Pressure from the United States
India finds itself balancing between its strategic interests in Iran and mounting demands from the United States.
Although the United States has exerted pressure on India to significantly reduce or sever engagement with Iran because of the conflict situation, India continues to depend on Iran for multiple strategic reasons:
Energy and Connectivity
India considers Iran important for both energy security and connectivity initiatives. The Chabahar Port remains a crucial gateway providing access to Central Asia and Afghanistan while bypassing Pakistan.
Geopolitical Importance
Iran shares a border with Pakistan, making it strategically relevant for India’s regional balancing calculations.
Strategic Signalling and Diplomatic Concerns
India’s strategic position reportedly faced a setback when a U.S. submarine attacked an Iranian vessel that had recently participated in exercises hosted in India and was returning home, raising concerns regarding recognition of India’s diplomatic role and strategic space.
Specific U.S. Expectations
The United States has reportedly urged India to:
- Reduce or stop imports of Russian oil.
- Reconsider involvement in the Chabahar Port project.
- Avoid alternatives to the U.S. dollar within the BRICS framework.
Challenges to India’s Strategic Autonomy
Emerging “Camp” Politics
India historically pursued strategic independence through approaches such as the Non-Aligned Movement, avoiding formal alignment with major power blocs. However, increasing geopolitical polarization is creating pressure for alignment with specific strategic camps, particularly the U.S.-led Western grouping.
Defence and Technology Constraints
India has sought diversification in defence procurement, including proposals involving Dassault Rafale fighter aircraft from Dassault Aviation to reduce dependence on both the United States and Russia.
However, technology transfer limitations remain significant because critical elements such as source codes and algorithms are not fully shared, restricting domestic manufacturing and technological self-reliance.
Perceived Asymmetry with Europe
Even with deeper economic engagement and trade negotiations involving the European Union, concerns persist that India is often viewed through a “developing country” or “Global South” perspective rather than as an equal strategic partner.
Multipolarity versus Unipolarity
India advocates a multipolar international order, where influence is distributed across several powers. In contrast, concerns remain that U.S. strategic behaviour continues to reflect assumptions of a predominantly unipolar system led by itself.
U.S. Reliability and the Taiwan Lesson
Contradictions in U.S.–China Engagement
While the United States has encouraged partners such as Japan, Australia, and India to limit strategic dependence on China, it has simultaneously pursued direct economic engagements with China to support American commercial interests.
Strategic Ambiguity and Taiwan
The situation involving Taiwan is often cited as an example of strategic ambiguity. Concerns remain that despite indications of support, shifts in high-level U.S.–China interactions could affect perceptions regarding the reliability of external security assurances, reinforcing the importance of self-reliance.
Way Forward
Multi-Alignment Strategy
India may continue pursuing a multi-alignment approach, engaging simultaneously with multiple centres of power while avoiding exclusive alignment with any single bloc.
Managing Relations with China
India may not be able to sustain prolonged confrontation with China solely on expectations of external support. If U.S.–China relations evolve toward accommodation, India could face strategic vulnerabilities; therefore, maintaining border stability remains important.
Strategic Priorities
India’s long-term priorities include:
- Geo-economic decoupling to reduce excessive dependence.
- Strategic hedging across partnerships.
- Technological sovereignty for greater self-reliance.
Conclusion
The Iran conflict highlights the continuing challenge of preserving India’s strategic autonomy. Despite expanding engagement with European partners, the situation indicates that India may still need to rely primarily on its own strategic capabilities and diversified partnerships during periods of major geopolitical uncertainty.
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