GS II: Bilateral, regional, and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.
Context: Escalating threats by Houthi forces to disrupt maritime shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, exacerbated by regional tensions involving Iran, have reignited critical security concerns over one of the world’s vital maritime choke points. This poses direct risks to India’s foreign trade, energy security, and broader maritime strategy in the Indian Ocean Region.
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Lessons from the 2023–24 Red Sea Crisis
- Asymmetric Houthi Maritime Attacks: Following the outbreak of the Gaza war in October 2023, Houthi forces targeted dozens of commercial vessels traversing the Red Sea using anti-ship missiles and drones.
- Operation Prosperity Guardian: A United States-led multinational task force was launched in December 2023 to safeguard freedom of navigation and escort commercial shipping through the corridor.
- UN Resolution 2722 (2024): The UN Security Council formally condemned Houthi attacks on merchant vessels, demanding an immediate cessation of hostile actions and reaffirming navigational rights under international law.
- Indian Navy’s Operational Intervention: India deployed frontline destroyers and frigates for anti-piracy and maritime security operations, actively rescuing merchant crews (such as the foreign crew of a targeted British tanker in early 2024).
- Mass Trade Route Diversion: Over 2,000 commercial vessels bypassed the Suez Canal, opting for the longer Cape of Good Hope transit, which added 10–14 days to transit times and significantly inflated shipping costs.
- Severe Economic Fallout: Egypt suffered a near-25% drop in Suez Canal transit revenues, while regional maritime hubs (such as Israel’s Port of Eilat) experienced sharp contractions in cargo traffic.
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Structural Escalation: Why the Current Threat Is More Acute
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│ Current Instability at Bab el-Mandeb │
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[Power Shift] [Diplomatic Friction] [Multilateral Drift] [Dual Chokepoint Risk]US focus split Diminished back-channel UNSC paralysis & Simultaneous instability in
by global events leverage via regional actors unilateral tactics Hormuz & Bab el-Mandeb
- Geopolitical Divergence & Reduced US Focus: With American security assets stretched across multiple global theaters, the sustained capability to secure the Southern Red Sea remains uncertain.
- Erosion of Diplomatic Channels: Previous reliance on back-channel diplomatic outreach to de-escalate maritime attacks has become less effective under shifting regional dynamics.
- Multilateral Governance Paralysis: Deep institutional fractures within the UN Security Council continue to prevent the authorization of a unified, UN-flagged maritime protection force.
- Transactional Bilateral Alignments: Major powers such as China may pursue selective bilateral security arrangements with local actors to safeguard their own commercial vessels, leaving international shipping fragmented.
- Dual Chokepoint Vulnerability: Simultaneous instability in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb creates a systemic crisis for Indo-Pacific energy flows and trade corridors.
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Direct Economic & Strategic Implications for India
- Export & Trade Bottlenecks: Disruption along the Bab el-Mandeb path directly impacts India’s $200+ billion annual trade route with Europe, North Africa, and the Americas passing through the Red Sea and Suez Canal.
- Surging Logistics and Insurance Costs: Re-routing around Africa increases marine fuel consumption, spikes container freight rates, and triggers high war-risk insurance premiums for Indian shipping lines.
- Supply Chain Disruptions: Delays in intermediate goods, critical industrial components, and raw material imports disrupt domestic manufacturing timelines.
- Imported Inflationary Pressures: Elevated sea freight rates directly translate into higher domestic landed costs for crude oil, fertilizers, and essential agricultural commodities.
- Threat to Indian Seafarers: India accounts for nearly 10% of global maritime seafaring workforce; security risks in narrow maritime straits directly threaten the safety of thousands of Indian sailors.
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India’s Strategic Maritime Response Framework
- Operational Naval Security Collaborations
- Trilateral Task Force (India–France–Japan): Establishing a dedicated, theater-specific Trade Protection Task Force leveraging joint naval capabilities in the Western Indian Ocean.
- Logistical Synergies in Djibouti: Utilizing the permanent military presence of France and Japan in Djibouti for logistical replenishment, naval maintenance, and intelligence sharing near the mouth of the Red Sea.
- Regional Diplomatic Alignment
- Targeted Outreach to Littoral States: Deepening security partnerships with Egypt and Saudi Arabia, both of which face direct fiscal and supply-chain losses from Red Sea disruptions.
- Non-Aligned Security Mechanism: Focusing joint efforts explicitly on freedom of navigation, counter-drone defense, and trade protection rather than formal military pacts.
- Advanced Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA)
- Information Fusion Centre–Indian Ocean Region (IFC-IOR): Utilizing Gurugram-based IFC-IOR to provide real-time maritime tracking, threat analysis, and actionable intelligence to partner navies.
- Coordinated Maritime Escorts: Deploying Indian Navy warships alongside partner navies to escort Indian-flagged and bound merchant vessels through high-threat zones.
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Broader Strategic Significance
| Policy Pillar | Strategic Objective |
| Rules-Based Order | Upholding freedom of navigation under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). |
| SAGAR Vision | Translating Security and Growth for All in the Region from a diplomatic doctrine into active maritime security enforcement. |
| Net Security Provider | Solidifying the Indian Navy’s role as a primary, responsible stabilizer across the Western and Central Indian Ocean. |
Way Forward
- Institutionalize Escort Corridors: Establish formal maritime convoy protocols for high-value merchant shipping traversing the Gulf of Aden and Southern Red Sea.
- Expand Technical Interoperability: Enhance tactical intelligence sharing and joint anti-drone/anti-missile capabilities with partner navies operating off the Horn of Africa.
- Diversify Trade & Energy Routes: Build long-term resilience by developing alternative multi-modal transit networks (e.g., IMEC) and expanding strategic petroleum reserves.
- Strengthen International Maritime Law: Lead international diplomatic efforts to enforce strict accountability against non-state actors targeting civilian commercial vessels in international waters.
Conclusion
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a primary economic lifeline for India’s foreign trade and energy security. By pairing independent naval deployments with targeted regional diplomacy and trilateral partnerships, India can safeguard freedom of navigation, shield its domestic economy from supply shocks, and reinforce its position as a reliable net security provider in the Indian Ocean Region.
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