Despite repeated calls by experts and policymakers for India to maintain dialogue with Pakistan, historical experience indicates a recurring pattern in which major Indian peace initiatives have often been followed by incidents of state-sponsored terrorism and military hostility.
Key Terminology
Jihadi Tanzims: Refers to terrorist organisations that Pakistan has allegedly used as strategic instruments to advance its geopolitical objectives.
Composite Dialogue: A structured framework established to simultaneously discuss all major bilateral issues, including terrorism, water disputes, Kashmir, trade, and other matters.
Modus Vivendi: A “working arrangement” or practical understanding under which both countries agree to coexist peacefully despite unresolved disputes.
Irredentism: An ideology in which a country seeks to claim or recover territories located in neighbouring states; Pakistan’s continued focus on Kashmir is often explained through this concept.
Issues Covered under the Composite Dialogue Framework
The issues discussed under the Composite Dialogue were broadly categorised into three major groups:
- Cooperation-Related Issues
These included matters related to trade, cultural exchanges, economic cooperation, and strengthening people-to-people contacts.
- Humanitarian Issues
These involved concerns related to prisoners, fishermen, divided families, and facilitation of cross-border movement.
- Conflict-Related Issues
These included sensitive subjects such as Kashmir, terrorism, military tensions, and wider security concerns.
Historical Background
During the period of Soviet intervention in Afghanistan, the United States and Pakistan jointly supported Mujahideen groups in their struggle against the Soviet Union.
Following the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, many of these militant networks gradually evolved into radical organisations, including the Taliban.
Pakistan subsequently recognised the strategic utility of such groups and began employing similar methods in Jammu and Kashmir.
As a consequence, Pakistan started extending support to terrorism and insurgency activities in Kashmir.
Historical Timeline of Major Peace Initiatives and Their Outcomes
1997–1999: Structured Dialogue Process
Efforts were initiated during this period to formally organise bilateral discussions into three broad categories:
- Cooperation-related issues such as trade and cultural exchanges
- Humanitarian issues including fishermen and civilian concerns
- Conflict-related issues involving Kashmir and terrorism
Vajpayee Era
Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee launched the Lahore Bus Yatra in 1999 as a major peace initiative aimed at improving bilateral relations.
However, this initiative was followed shortly afterwards by the Kargil War.
The Agra Summit of 2001 also failed because Pakistan’s leadership remained unwilling to move beyond the Kashmir issue.
This was followed later in December 2001 by the attack on the Indian Parliament.
Manmohan Singh Era
The government under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh attempted to advance back-channel diplomacy in order to develop a Modus Vivendi between the two countries.
However, the Mumbai terrorist attacks of 2008 took place merely ten days after a meeting of the Joint Terrorism Action Force.
Modi Era
In 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to attend his swearing-in ceremony as a gesture of goodwill.
In 2015, both leaders met in Ufa, Russia, and issued a joint statement aimed at improving bilateral engagement.
Prime Minister Modi also made an unexpected visit to Lahore in 2015, signalling another significant effort toward reconciliation.
However, relations deteriorated sharply following the Pathankot attack in 2016 and the Uri attack in 2016.
After the Uri attack, India carried out surgical strikes.
Subsequently, following the Pulwama attack in 2019, India conducted air strikes.
Why Does Pakistan Avoid Peace? — Three Core Explanations
- Identity Crisis
According to this perspective, if Kashmir, despite being a Muslim-majority region, remains peaceful and prosperous within India, it would weaken Pakistan’s Two-Nation Theory, which formed the ideological foundation of Pakistan’s creation.
- Deep-Seated Irredentism
Pakistan’s continued focus on Kashmir is viewed as a deeply rooted psychological and political commitment.
This attachment is often considered so strong that Pakistan remains willing to bear substantial economic costs in pursuit of this objective.
- Dominance of the Pakistan Army
Another argument suggests that the Pakistan Army possesses extensive institutional and economic influence.
A stable peace with India could potentially reduce military expenditure and diminish the political and economic influence enjoyed by military leadership.
India’s Contemporary Policy Approach toward Pakistan
Shift Away from Unconditional Dialogue
India has increasingly moved away from the earlier approach of unconditional engagement.
India now maintains that terrorism and dialogue cannot proceed simultaneously.
Suspension of Agreements and Talks
India has suspended discussions and cooperation under mechanisms linked to the Indus Water Treaty as a means of applying diplomatic pressure.
Limited Engagement Strategy
Experts increasingly suggest restricting engagement primarily to humanitarian matters such as prisoner exchanges and fishermen-related issues because broader political disputes currently appear difficult to resolve.
Active Retaliatory Measures
India has increasingly relied upon surgical strikes and air strikes to signal that it no longer differentiates between terrorist organisations and the state structures that allegedly support them.
The 1998 Durban Summit Anecdote
Emergence of the Nuclear Era (1998)
By September 1998, both India and Pakistan had conducted nuclear tests.
These developments significantly increased tensions between the two countries.
Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee attended the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) Summit held in Durban.
During this period, Vajpayee instructed Indian negotiators to finalise the framework for the dialogue process with Pakistan.
A lengthy one-to-one negotiation session subsequently took place in a hotel room.
The discussions were held with Pakistani diplomat Tariq Altaf.
These negotiations played an important role in preparing the final blueprint for the dialogue framework.
Formal Announcement of the Composite Dialogue
Subsequently, Nawaz Sharif and Atal Bihari Vajpayee met in New York.
Following this meeting, the Composite Dialogue (CD) framework was officially announced.
Conclusion
India has repeatedly undertaken diplomatic initiatives to improve bilateral relations with Pakistan.
However, several major peace initiatives have historically been followed by terrorist incidents or military confrontations.
Therefore, the principal challenge is viewed not merely as the absence of dialogue, but also as Pakistan’s perceived structural dependence on anti-India narratives, terrorism, and the Kashmir issue.
Consequently, India’s policy approach is increasingly seen as a combination of firm deterrence measures along with limited humanitarian engagement.
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